American businesses face a tremendous amount of uncertainty right now, and their concerns are beginning to show up in official data. In March 2025, for example, the NFIB Small Business Optimism index slipped more than 3% to 97.1, falling below the 51-year historical average.
Many economists believe business conditions will get worse before they get better. As a result, the growing consensus is for an uncertainty-driven recession in 2025 or 2026.
Seasoned business leaders have seen this movie before. For example, Allana Buick & Bers (ABB) CEO Karim Allana has endured at least four official recessions since launching his company in the late 1980s, along with a few other stagnant periods that might as well have been recessions.
“Economic downturns and the uncertainty they bring are a fact of life for business leaders — a matter of when, not if,” Allana says.
But Allana and others like him are optimistic by nature. Challenging as uncertain times may be, they see these intervals as rich with opportunities for capable leaders. Here’s how Allana advises his peers to make the most of uncertainty.
As a Catalyst to Make Difficult, Overdue Decisions
Periods of economic uncertainty, or even uncertainty localized to your industry, tend to clarify the “stakes” for your business. They can push you to make uncomfortable, overdue decisions that you believe to be in your best interest.
When thinking about uncomfortable and overdue decisions, most business leaders immediately turn their thoughts to layoffs. After all, labor is probably one of your biggest expenses, and reducing its bottom-line impact is a natural response to adversity.
Reducing headcount isn’t the only example of an overdue, difficult decision that may be catalyzed by economic uncertainty. Even more drastic measures could be warranted, such as selling or outright eliminating an underperforming or non-core business line. If and when it comes to this, use the Pareto principle as your guide to find the 20% of products that drive 80% of your business revenues (or whatever the actual numbers may be — chances are, a minority of your products account for a majority of your revenues).
“Applied correctly, this principle can help you focus your time, energy, and resources on the activities that yield the most impact,” says business coach Zel McGhee.
As a Reminder to Get Serious About Long-Range Scenario Planning
Uncertainty can spur other forms of “deferred maintenance” on your business. For example, even if most have a sense of where they’d like to be in five years, many business owners or executives are too busy or distracted to devote much time to formal long-range planning.
This could put your business at a competitive disadvantage when it can least afford to be. The business failure rate averages out to about 1 in 2 new enterprises over 5 years, but a disproportionate number of failures come during economic recessions or sector downturns and their aftermath.
“Long-range planning helps insulate your business from the acute risks that are more likely to arise during periods of economic turmoil,” ABB’s Allana says.
As a Tool to Revisit Your Assumptions
This is the last of the so-called “deferred maintenance” opportunities created by uncertainty. It’s often “upstream” of long-range planning, in the sense that leaders tend to base planning scenarios on basic assumptions about their businesses.
The reason uncertainty can (and maybe must) be a chance to revisit those basic assumptions is because uncertainty frequently leads to significant shifts at the micro and macro level. One recent historical example is the decision by most European countries — and countless businesses operating within their borders — to shift supply chains away from Russia and toward North America and Asia following the outbreak of the Ukraine war.
While borne of acute necessity, it’s clear in hindsight that this shift will be a durable one. In 2025, the Center for East European and International Studies went so far as to proclaim that “Russia’s former monopoly as Europe’s main oil and gas supplier will not return.”
As a Chance to Perform for Your Customers
If you’re feeling uncertainty in your business, it’s likely your customers are feeling it in theirs — and in their daily lives — as well.
This is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, your customers may be doing their own belt-tightening, which could hit your bottom line. On the other, you may not be their only vendor, and those other partners could be struggling to keep their promises.
That’s an opportunity, and a rare one at that, to prove what you’re made of. Perform at or beyond your customers’ expectations when it matters most and prepare to reap the rewards.
As an Opening to Get a Better Deal From Vendors and Partners
Provided you’re able to perform through them, uncertain times also offer opportunities to get a better deal for your business, particularly if the competition thins or external events trigger repricing clauses in your supply contracts. But even if things don’t get to that point, long-term customers may be willing to renegotiate terms or make temporary accommodations to reflect the risks your business faces.
As an Opportunity to Pad Your Margins (Or Appropriately Value Risk)
If your business has the flexibility to raise prices at any time, uncertain times may offer an opening to do so in a way that appropriately values the increased risk your business faces.
However, even during periods of economic uncertainty or high inflation, raising prices can scare away once-solid customers, warns ROK Financial’s James Webster. He recommends demonstrating a “value-add” if and when you choose to charge more.
“Another opportune time to raise your prices is when adding value to products or services,” he says. “You can increase prices if you add additional services to what you usually provide [or] change the ingredients of your products.”
As a Gauntlet for the Next Generation of Leaders
Last, but certainly not least, uncertainty is an opportunity for the next generation of leaders within your business to prove themselves to you and your executive team. Or, if they’re not forthcoming, for you to find, hire and promote them into positions of responsibility.
Not all of them will make it through. However, those who do will be battle-tested and ready to face a wide range of challenges. One day, you might even pick one of them to replace you.
How Does Uncertainty Work for You?
Uncertainty is never fun. For many businesses, it’s outright existential.
However, as the saying goes, the only way out is through. If you can’t wave a magic wand and make it all go away, you might as well get comfortable with uncertainty — and use it to your advantage whenever you can.